And the Interesting Thing is on June 24

Israel and Iran “Agree” to Ceasefire, Israel Promptly Accuses Iran of Violating the Truce

In a dramatic turn of events, a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel—announced last night by the president—has already begun to unravel, with Israel accusing Iran of violating the truce within hours of its announcement.

Here’s what we know this morning:

· The ceasefire was announced early Tuesday morning, following nearly two weeks of intense conflict that saw hundreds killed and significant infrastructure damage in both countries. President Trump, who had been actively mediating between the two sides, declared on his social media platform that the ceasefire was “NOW IN EFFECT” and urged both nations: “PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!”

· Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Israel’s acceptance of the ceasefire in a statement on Tuesday morning. "Israel thanks President Trump and the United States for their support in defense and their participation in eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat. "In light of achieving the objectives of the operation, and in full coordination with President Trump, Israel has agreed to the president's proposal for a bilateral ceasefire. "Israel will respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire."

· Iranian state media announced Tuesday a ceasefire has been “imposed on the enemy” after the country’s military response to “U.S. aggression,” hours after Iran’s retaliatory attacks against a U.S. base in Qatar. “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard’s successful missile operations in response to U.S. aggression and the exemplary steadfastness and unity of our dear people in defending our land, has imposed ceasefire on the enemy,” an anchor with state-run Iran National News Network said in a live broadcast. “U.S. President Donald Trump requested the ceasefire between Iran and Israel “in a begging-like manner” shortly after Iran’s strikes toward the US’s Al Udeid base in Qatar, the anchor said.

· Hours after Trump announced the cease-fire was in place, Israel reported that it was working to intercept missiles fired from Iran. The Israeli military’s chief of staff said, "Following the severe cease-fire violation committed by the Iranian regime. We will attack with force." Iran denied any missile launches following the ceasefire, then accused Israel of attacking it in three waves within half an hour of Trump saying the truce went into effect.

· Israel’s defense minister Israel Katz said the country’s military would retaliate “forcefully” to a “violation of the ceasefire”, after reporting new missile fire from Iran. Katz said in a statement posted on X: “I have instructed the Israel Defense Forces to respond forcefully to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with powerful strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran. The Iranian regime has severely violated the ceasefire declared by the President of the United States and launched missiles toward Israel, and in accordance with the government's policy as determined - we will respond forcefully to any violation.”

· Iran’s Supreme National Security Council in turn warned that its military would respond to any further Israeli attacks. Hailing “victory” in the conflict, the security council said the Iranian armed forces had “no trust” in Israel and were prepared “with their fingers on the trigger” to deliver a “regret-inducing” response to any further attacks. It also said the “triumph” in the conflict was a “divine reward” for the Iranian nation’s “remarkable vigilance, awareness and solidarity.”

· The president expressed clear frustration this morning, accusing both Israel and Iran of violating the ceasefire announced earlier saying the two countries “don’t know what the fuck they’re doing!” the president told reporters as he departed the White House ahead of flying to the NATO summit in The Hague. “I am not happy that Israel is going out now. There was one rocket, that I guess was fired overboard, which was after the time limit, and it missed its target. And now Israel is going out, these guys got to calm down. Ridiculous. I didn’t like plenty of things I saw yesterday, I didn’t like the fact that Israel unloaded right after we made the deal. They didn't have to unload…the retaliation was very strong, but in all fairness, Israel unloaded a lot. Now I hear Israel just went out because they felt it was violated by one rocket that didn’t land anywhere. That’s not what we want, I’ll tell you. I am telling you; I am not happy about that Israel either.

· In a Truth Social post minutes later, Trump called on Israel to hold fire and not respond to an earlier reported Iranian missile attack: ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.” Some 38 minutes later, he returned to Truth Social to declare that “ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly “Plane Wave” to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

· Later, the president wrote, without providing more detail, "IRAN WILL NEVER REBUILD THEIR NUCLEAR FACILITIES!"

· Ahead of the president’s trip to the NATO summit, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte reiterated the organization’s stance that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon. “Allies have long agreed that Iran must not develop a nuclear weapon…Allies have repeatedly urged Iran to meet its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.” Rutte also said that NATO is prepared to defend “every inch of ally territory should any potential adversary make the mistake of attacking any ally.”

· Middle Eastern leaders hailed the news of the ceasefire, with the Egyptian government describing it as a “fundamental development toward containing the dangerous escalation witnessed in the region in recent days,” in a statement Tuesday. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry said it “appreciates the efforts made to reduce the escalation.” Jordan’s spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, Sufyan Al-Qudah, called for dialogue and diplomacy and said the ceasefire agreement was necessary to “protect the region from the consequences of further deterioration.”

· Prior to the ceasefire announcement, three House Democratic committee leaders introduced a War Powers Resolution that would limit President Donald Trump from escalating a conflict with Iran without congressional approval. The Democratic resolution—led by Reps. Gregory Meeks (NY), the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Adam Smith (WA), Ranking Member of the House Armed Services Committee and Jim Himes (CT), Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee—would direct the president “to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran” and remind the executive branch that any declaration of war must come from Congress. It would, however, allow the U.S. to defend itself or its foreign allies and partners if they’re under imminent attack.

· The resolution is different from a bipartisan proposal by Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Ro Khanna (D-CA) introduced last week. But Massie informed House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) that he would withhold introducing it as long as Trump’s declared ceasefire holds. “I talked to the speaker on the floor just now and told him we wouldn’t push it if the cease-fire holds, so it’s really in their court,” the Kentucky Republican told reporters, adding that he would “wait and see” before making a final call. Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) said he and his colleagues want to see what comes out of their classified briefing Tuesday before scheduling a vote on his war powers resolution, which could come as soon as Wednesday.

And the interesting thing is, the president’s decision to launch airstrikes against Iran is broadly unpopular with Americans, according to a new CNN poll conducted after the strikes. Americans disapprove of the strikes, 56% to 44%, according to the survey, with strong disapproval outpacing the share who strongly approve. Not surprisingly, there are sharp partisan differences, with Democrats (88%) broadly opposed to the strikes as most Republicans support them (82%), though younger GOP supporters (20%) and Republican-leaning independents (40%) are more skeptical than others in their party. just 44% of Republicans strongly approve of the airstrikes, far smaller than the share of Democrats who strongly disapprove (60%), reflecting some of the internal disputes among the president’s isolationist base and more traditional foreign policy Republicans.

The CNN poll shows similar concerns as a Reuters Ipsos poll, which found that just 36% of the 1,139 respondents—including 13% of Democrats and 69% of Republicans—said they supported the strikes. Republicans were more deeply divided when asked if they supported an immediate end to U.S. involvement in the conflict with Iran, with 42% saying the president should end its involvement now and 40% opposed to the idea. Significant majorities of Democrats were opposed to bombing Iran further (74%) and in favor of ending the conflict immediately. The Reuters poll also showed that the president’s approval rating had fallen to 41%, down from 47% when he returned to office in January.

Both the CNN and Reuters polls closed before the ceasefire announcement, so these numbers are sure to improve somewhat. However, the ceasefire is, at best, fragile at the moment and given his very public involvement, will politically own its ultimate success or failure.

Federal Reserve Chair Testifies Before House Financial Services Committee, Says Economy is in a “Solid Position” but “Uncertainties” Remain

In his semi-annual appearance before the House Financial Services Committee to provide an update on U.S. monetary policy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will tell the committee that the central bank is in no rush to lower interest rates as officials wait for more clarity on the economic impact of the president’s tariffs. “The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level,” Powell said in his prepared remarks. “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

Powell’s testimony comes on the heels of the Fed’s decision last week to leave interest rates unchanged in a range of 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates as angered Trump, who has consistently called for lower rates and argued the Fed is keeping borrowing costs for the US government high by holding rates steady. You can expect several heated from questions from committee Republicans echoing the president’s criticisms.

Powell underscored that while inflation has eased significantly since its 2022 peak, it remains “somewhat elevated” above the Fed’s 2% target.

Key highlights from Powell’s testimony include:

· Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy remains solid, with GDP growth of 2.5% last year. However, first-quarter data showed a slight dip due to businesses front-loading imports ahead of potential tariffs

· Labor Market: The unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in May, with job gains averaging 124,000 per month. Powell noted that the labor market is “broadly in balance” and not a source of inflationary pressure

· Inflation: Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 2.6% over the past year, while total PCE inflation was at 2.3%. Powell acknowledged that while inflation has moderated, risks remain on both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.

· Policy Uncertainty: Powell said that “policy changes continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined. Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity. The effects on inflation could be short lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. It is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent.”

And the interesting thing is, as if on cue, the president this morning took to Truth Social to once again eviscerate Chairman Powell, whom the president himself appointed in his first term. “Too Late” Jerome Powell, of the Fed, will be in Congress today in order to explain, among other things, why he is refusing to lower the Rate. Europe has had 10 cuts, we have had ZERO. No inflation, great economy - We should be at least two to three points lower. Would save the USA 800 Billion Dollars Per Year, plus. What a difference this would make. If things later change to the negative, increase the Rate. I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come.” Look for histrionics at the hearing with members falling over themselves to try to generate viral content.

Economic data released yesterday indicated that U.S. business activity slowed in June, though prices increased further amid the president's aggressive tariffs on imported goods, suggesting that an acceleration in inflation was likely in the second half of the year. S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, slipped to 52.8 this month from 53.0 in May. While the June rise in output was the third strongest so far this year, the pace of growth remains well below that recorded in late 2024. The manufacturing index was unchanged, but the report noted that "companies generally remained less upbeat than prior to the inauguration of President Trump."

A separate report from the National Association of Realtors indicated that existing home sales increased 0.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million units. Despite the rise, the sales pace was the slowest for any May since 2009 when the economy was at the tail end of the Great Recession, triggered by the bursting of the housing bubble.

Sales dropped 0.7% on a year-over-year basis in May. Other metrics were consistent with tepid demand. The 4.6 month supply of houses on the market was the highest in nearly nine years and a 1.3% price rise from a year ago was the smallest since 2023.

Senate Health Committee Chair Calls for Postponing RFK Jr’s Vaccine Advisory Panel Meeting, Citing “Concerns” About Panel’s Credibility

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), the chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, who effectively was the deciding vote to confirm Robert F, Kennedy Jr as HHS Secretary after receiving assurances that the noted vaccine skeptic would not change vaccine policies, has called for the postponement of this week’s CDC vaccine advisory panel meeting, citing concerns about the panel’s composition and credibility.

The controversy stems from Secretary Kennedy’s June 9 decision to dismiss all 17 members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) and replace them with eight new appointees—several of whom are known vaccine skeptics. Cassidy, a physician himself, warned that many of the new members lack experience in key scientific fields such as microbiology, epidemiology, and immunology, and may harbor biases against mRNA vaccines.

In a post on social media, Cassidy argued that the June 25–26 meeting should not proceed with such a small and potentially unbalanced panel, especially in the absence of a CDC Director to approve any recommendations. He emphasized that moving forward under these conditions could undermine public trust in vaccine policy and the administration’s broader health agenda.

Cassidy’s comments represent the strongest statement he’s made to date about Kennedy or his actions, though he did not mention the secretary by name.

And the interesting thing is, the two-day meeting begins on Wednesday. Part of the agenda includes discussion and a vote on recommendations concerning thimerosal, a vaccine ingredient wrongly linked to autism that Kennedy has long called to be banned. The CDC webpage about thimerosal currently states that "there is no evidence of harm caused by the low doses of thimerosal in vaccines, except for minor reactions like redness and swelling at the injection site." It also affirms that "research does not show any link between thimerosal in vaccines and autism."

That’s all for today. See you back here again tomorrow!